On April 29, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that Azerbaijan’s strategic foreign exchange reserves would reach $72.709 billion by 2030, reflecting a 0.73% annual increase.

The IMF projects this growth will be driven by an increase in the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) assets, expected to reach $62.949 billion with a 1.17% annual rise, while the Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s (CBA) foreign exchange reserves are anticipated to be $9.76 billion, decreasing by 2.01%. In 2025, reserves are forecasted at $71.671 billion (+0.96%), with the CBA’s share at $10.76 billion (-1.82%) and SOFAZ’s at $60.911 billion (+1.47%). In 2026, reserves will reach $72.357 billion (+0.96%), with the CBA’s at $10.56 billion (-1.89%) and SOFAZ’s at $61.797 billion (+1.46%). By 2027, reserves are projected at $72.224 billion (-0.18%), with $10.36 billion (-1.89%) for the CBA and $61.864 billion (+0.11%) for SOFAZ. In 2028, reserves are expected to drop to $71.754 billion (-0.65%), with the CBA at $10.16 billion (-1.93%) and SOFAZ at $61.594 billion (-0.44%). In 2029, reserves are anticipated at $72.182 billion (+0.6%), with the CBA’s at $9.96 billion (-1.97%) and SOFAZ’s at $62.222 billion (+1.02%).

The IMF also projected Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP to reach $100.895 billion by 2030 with real growth of 2.5%. In 2025, nominal GDP is expected at $78.87 billion (+3.5%), followed by $81.872 billion (+2.5%) in 2026, $85.792 billion (+2.4%) in 2027, $90.327 billion (+2.4%) in 2028, and $95.373 billion (+2.5%) in 2029. Non-oil nominal GDP is projected at $55.6 billion in 2025 (+10.46%), $60.3 billion in 2026 (+8.37%), $64.9 billion in 2027 (+7.64%), $69.8 billion in 2028 (+7.6%), $75.2 billion in 2029 (+7.64%), and $80.9 billion in 2030 (+7.64%). Government estimates indicate 2024 GDP grew by 4.1% to $74.2 billion, with non-oil and gas GDP increasing by 6.2%, but growth slowed to 0.3% in January–March 2025. GDP for 2025 is projected at $75.9 billion (+3.7%).

The IMF forecasted average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.7% in 2025, with annual inflation at 5.2%. In 2026, average annual inflation is expected at 4.5%, stabilizing at 4% from 2027 to 2030, with annual inflation likewise at 4%. The Ministry of Economy estimates 5.1% average annual inflation in 2025, declining to 4.3% in 2026. The CBA projects 5.3% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. The United Nations forecasts 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, while the World Bank estimates 2.3% for both years. The Asian Development Bank projects 4.2% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026. S&P Global and Moody’s forecast 4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026. ING Group expects 5.2% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026. In 2024, average annual inflation was 2.2%, rising to 5.6% in January–March 2025.

The IMF forecasted Azerbaijan’s current account surplus at 7.8% of GDP in 2025, decreasing to 4.1% in 2026, 0.5% in 2027, and turning into deficits of 2.4% in 2028, 3.3% in 2029, and 4.2% in 2030. In 2024, the surplus was $4.7 billion (6.3% of GDP). The World Bank forecasts surpluses of 11.6% in 2025, 5.4% in 2026, 3.8% in 2027, 3.6% in 2028, and 3.4% in 2029. The government anticipates 5.6% in 2025 and about 3% annually from 2025 to 2028, based on oil and gas production forecasts. The CBA projects $4 billion in 2025 and $3.5 billion in 2026.

The IMF forecasted Azerbaijan’s total public and publicly guaranteed debt at 27.6% of GDP in 2025, maintaining stability medium-term. This ratio is projected at 28.6% in 2026, 28.9% in 2027, 29.1% in 2028, 29.6% in 2029, and 29.4% in 2030. Excluding guarantees, public debt is expected at 21% in 2025, 22.2% in 2026, 22.7% in 2027, 23.1% in 2028, 23.8% in 2029, and 23.8% in 2030. In 2024, it was 27.6% of GDP. The Ministry of Finance projects total public debt at $17.061 billion (22.2% of GDP) by 2025 and $19.235 billion (20.1% of GDP) in 2026. As of April 1, 2025, public debt was $15.663 billion, with $5.075 billion external (6.6% of GDP) and $10.588 billion internal (13.8% of GDP). External debt maturity includes 49.9% due within five years, 44.2% in five to ten years, and 5.9% over ten years. By creditor, 63.3% is owed to multilateral institutions, 27% to Eurobonds, and 9.7% to bilateral loans, with major creditors being the Asian Development Bank (35.1%), Eurobond holders (27%), and the World Bank (15.8%).